Simon J. Evenett and Matt Linley | 08 Apr 2021

The world--in particular, the developing world--is counting on India to supply them with COVID-19 vaccines. During March 2021 Indian exports of such vaccines collapsed and GAVI noted that shipments in March and April 2021 were likely to be delayed. On 7 April 2021 the CEO of the Serum Institute of India said that shipments might be resumed in June 2021 so long as local Indian needs were met first. In this analysis, the delays to vaccination programmes in Africa, in Asia, and in Latin America and the Carribean are estimated should India cease exports.