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Simon J. Evenett | 11 Nov 2024

At this critical juncture for world trade, particular care is needed in interpreting monthly Chinese export releases. Atypically low exports in 2023 inflate the 2024 year-on-year percentage increases in monthly Chinese exports. Better to compare the officially released year-to-date export totals, available at present from 2021. These show that Chinese exports have grown in value by 3.2% per annum, hardly a surge. Chinese exports to Japan and USA are currently below levels seen during the first 10 months of 2021; to the EU they have barely risen. Such data undermine the case for raising trade barriers on the grounds that Chinese aggregate exports are “accelerating.”

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